There's some market predictions that do smell like self-fulfilling prophecies.
You know the phenomenon for sure: the rise and fall of UMTS, the number of mobile users and the quadzillions of advertising millions to be made on the web.
The latest and still perpetuing topic is Location Based Services (LBS), being trumpeted as the next big thing since 1997, the first year of LBS.
Using a search engine you trust, you'll find that 2007 could turn out to be the year of LBS. Or that LBS are finally poised to take off in 2006 and 2007. That 2005 will be a banner year for carrier deployments of LBS. Or that 2003 will mark a turning point for LBS as a market segment.Groundhog Day? (The german version was "Und ewig grüßt das Murmeltier") A hilarious movie starring Bill Murray who finds himself being stuck in time. His day unfolds in exactly the same way while he is aware of the repetition, everyone else seems to be living February 2 exactly the same way and for the first time.
But this time, hey - for sure: 2008 could be the year of location based services without history repeating (see here, here or here).
Leave aside the professional trumpeters: there is noteable difference to all those years before. (BTW and credit, when credit is due: portions of this posting are derived and expanded from Rainer Simon's post.)
- the technological model is changing: functionality is moving out of the network
- number, type and adoption of location-aware devices is accelerating on a faster path than ever: Nokia alone pushes more GPS-enabled models on worldwide markets in 2008 than in all the recent years combined
- vehicle navigation is becoming a standard feature of new cars
- navigation jumps onto mobile, connected devices
Will location based services take off by the end of the year? Rainer Simon argues "the average LBS will never be able to reach a mass audience."
Ooops.
Should we cease operations at United Maps?
Think again.
The mass audience argument is a thing of the past. There is no more masses out there. As mass media are about to atomize themselves "mass as you know it" is an overcome concept. Not today, not tomorrow but on a foreseeable horizont. Not for all product types, markets, usecases. Fast moving consumer goods are there to stay - so don't get that wrong.
The question never was if LBS are to "reach a mass audience" because location based services inherently target an audience of one. You. Me. The guy trying to find out where to go. The tourist orienting herself in a city she has never been to. So stop thinking "mass", start understanding "long tail". Yes, the sexy little long tail thing that not too many people are able to put into ancient marketing models.
Utimately, we're not talking about a niche market (as opposed to "mass") but millions of niches.
Switching back to our shameless self-promotion: whoever does location based services needs better mapping, more detailed, more integrated and more navigational modes.
So we push on ... good by mass markets, welcome long tail!
Charging more (or less, like in O2s "home zone" plan in Germany) depending on the location of the customer is a LBS, but has nothing to do with maps. But nevertheless I think here lies a clue going forward: People don't like the idea that their location can be tracked, they don't like to make their location available and therefore will be reluctant to enable networked features where their location has to be made known to a third party.
But if you charge them less (or nothing) for SMS / voice minutes if they are close to a business or a friend, this could serve as a perfect enabler for people to get used to this feature.